Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
